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VARIED IMPACTS OF SPACE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (VISAS)
Forecast, Outlook and Prospects of SW Monsoon over India during 2012
NEAR NORMAL SOUTH WEST MONSOON RAINFALL OCCURRED DURING 2011 AS PROJECTED USING A REAL-TIME SST MODEL WITH WEEKLY UPDATES ON THIS WEBSITE: THE UNUSUAL LA-NINA TYPE CONDITION PRESENT DURING 2011 BROUGHT GOOD RAINS OVER INDIA AND SOUTH EAST ASIA.
The main results of a Real Tme model basd on variations of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) measured by AQUA/TRMM satellites showed a clear trend of mean SST during the monsoon of 2011 similar to that during 2008. The 2011 monsoon rainfall turned out to be nearly normal.
Continuation of the Model results for inputs towards the prospects of SW Monsoon Rainfall over India during 2012 is being presented here, the figure given below is the third in this series. The figure would be updated from time to time.
Mean SST Trend as of May 1, 2012
Figure: Top Panel shows the variations of mean sea surface temperature (SST) measured by AQUA/TRMM satellite’s microwave sensors at weekly intervals averaged over a broad Pacific and Indian ocean region (called Nino-BP) shown in the bottom panel. The colour code shows the trends in mean SST for different years and the trend up to May 2 of the year 2012 (shown in red). The trend so far shows the possibility of July-August (2012) rainfall being defficient or below normal.
For More Details on Monsoon forecast as of 1 May 2012 please CLICK HERE
For More Details on Monsoon forecast as of 1 April 2012 pleaseCLICK HERE
For More Details on Monsoon forecast as of 1 March 2012 pleaseCLICK HERE
For Details on the Model Please See 'Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the Indian Summer Monsoon' Published in Scientific and Engineering Applications Using MATLAB, Emilson Pereira Leite (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-307-659-1, InTech, pp33-54, 2011
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